In Swing States Majorities of Republicans and Democrats Agree on Measures to Eliminate Most of Social Security Shortfall

Favor Raising Taxes and Reducing Benefits for High-Income Earners, 
While Raising COLAs, Benefits for Low Income and Age 85+

A new public consultation survey finds significant bipartisan support for major proposals–including revenue increases and benefit cuts–that would reduce Social Security’s long-term shortfall by 78% and extend the program’s longevity for decades. [Full Report]

Without any reforms to revenues or benefits, the Social Security Trust Fund will be depleted by 2033, and benefits will be cut for all retirees.

This survey by the University of Maryland’s Program for Public Consultation (PPC) is the sixth in a series – the Swing Six Issue Surveys – being conducted in the run-up to the November election in six swing states and nationally. Unlike standard polling, respondents went through an interactive online ‘policymaking simulation’ in which they were briefed and evaluated pro and con arguments for proposed reforms. The survey content was reviewed by experts on different sides of the debate. All Americans are invited to go through the same policymaking simulation as the survey sample.

Revenue Increases
Overwhelming majorities of Democrats and Republicans support two proposals to increase revenues, which would cover three-quarters of the Social Security shortfall:

• Making Wages Over $400k Subject to the Payroll Tax: Currently, wages subject to the payroll tax are capped at $169,000. A proposal to make all wages over $400,000 subject to the payroll tax, which would eliminate 60% of the shortfall, is supported by an overwhelming 86% to 89% in the swing states. This includes large majorities of Republicans (83%-89%) and Democrats (83%-92%). Nationally, 87% are in support. [GRAPH]
  
• Increasing the Payroll Tax: Respondents were given the option of gradually increasing the payroll tax over several years from 6.2 percent to 6.5 percent by 2030, 6.9 percent by 2038, or to 7.2 percent by 2044, or not raise it. Increasing the payroll tax to at least 6.5 percent, which would eliminate 15% of the shortfall, is supported by 83% to 88% in the swing states. This includes majorities of Republicans (83%-88%) and Democrats (85%-88%). Nationally, 86% are in support. [GRAPH]

Benefit Reductions
Two benefit reductions, which would cover a quarter of the Social Security shortfall, also have robust bipartisan support:

• Reducing Benefits for High-Income Earners: Respondents were given the options of reducing benefits for the top 20 percent of earners, the top 40 percent, or the top 50 percent, or they could not choose any of those options. Reducing benefits for the top 20 percent of income earners, which would eliminate 11% of the shortfall, is supported by an overwhelming 91% to 94% in the swing states. This includes majorities of Republicans (88%-93%) and Democrats (91%-94%). Nationally, 92% are in support. [GRAPH]
  
• Raising the Retirement Age: Respondents were given options to gradually raise the full retirement age, which is currently set at 67 years old: raise it to 68 by 2033, to 69 by 2041, or to 70 by 2064, or they could not choose any of those options. Raising the retirement age to at least 68, which would eliminate 15% of the shortfall, is supported by an overwhelming 88% to 91% in the swing states. This includes majorities of Republicans (88%-94%) and Democrats (87%-92%). Nationally, 89% are in support. [GRAPH]

“While some of these proposals–such as raising the retirement age or raising payroll taxes–are not popular in themselves, when Americans consider the full picture, large bipartisan majorities support taking tough steps to secure the Social Security program,” commented Steven Kull, director of PPC. Kull adds, “We were struck by how similar the Republican and Democrats are on all these questions.”

Raising Benefits
The four reforms endorsed by majorities–to increase revenues and reduce certain benefits– would eliminate 101% of the shortfall. However, majorities also favor benefit increases which increase the shortfall by 23%. Combined, all of these proposals would reduce the shortfall by 78%.

• Raising the Minimum Benefit: Increasing the minimum monthly benefit for someone who worked 30 years from $1,066 to $1,570 which would increase the shortfall by 7%, is supported by 70% to 73% in the swing states. This includes majorities of Republicans (65%-72%) and Democrats (68%-78%). Nationally, 71% are in support. The minimum benefit would rise with inflation, and always be set at 125% of the federal poverty line. [GRAPH]
  
• Increasing Benefits for 85+: Raising benefits for those 85 and over by about $100 a month, which would increase the shortfall by 4%, is supported by 64% to 67% in the swing states. This includes majorities of Republicans (58%-67%) and Democrats (61%-70%). Nationally, 68% are in support. [GRAPH]
  
• Increasing Cost of Living Adjustments (COLAs): Changing the way COLAs are calculated by focusing on the goods and services that older adults tend to buy, which would increase the shortfall by 12%, is supported by 65% to 68% in the swing states. This includes majorities of Republicans (62%-68%) and Democrats (62%-70%). Nationally, 68% are in support. [GRAPH]

About the Survey
Respondents were initially briefed on and evaluated each proposal separately. At the end of the survey, they were presented all options on the same page, with information about the potential impact of each on the Social Security shortfall. They were told they need not select any of the options. As they made selections, they could see the total impact of their choices on the shortfall. Estimates of shortfall effects came from the Social Security Administration.

The survey was fielded August 2-17, 2024 with 4,677 adults by the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy, including approximately 600 in each state of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and 1,224 nationally. Samples were obtained from multiple online opt-in panels, including Cint, Dynata and Prodege. Sample collection and quality control was managed by QuantifyAI under the direction of the Program for Public Consultation. Samples were pre-stratified and weighted by age, race, gender, education, income, metro/non-metro, home ownership, marital status, and partisan affiliation (nationally and in some states) to match the general adult population. The survey was offered in both English and Spanish. The confidence interval for the national sample is +/-3.2% and for each state sample it is +/-4.5%.