(The Center Square) – The Pentagon will continue ahead with a plan to overhaul the nation’s land-based intercontinental nuclear missile program despite an 81% jump in projected costs.
The Air Force’s Sentinel program is intended to replace the Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile system. Sentinel includes the development of a new missile, command and control and ground systems and infrastructure modernization. The program is expected to boost capability, security and reliability of the land-based portion of the nuclear triad.
Total program acquisition costs are estimated at $140.9 billion, an increase of 81% compared to estimates at the program’s previous Milestone B decision in September 2020.
In January, the Air Force notified Congress that the Sentinel program exceeded its baseline cost projections, resulting in a critical breach under the Nunn-McCurdy statute. That statute says a critical breach occurs if the Program Acquisition Unit Cost or Average Unit Procurement Cost increases by 25% or more over the existing Acquisition Program Baseline.
By law, the respective program must be terminated unless the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment certifies to Congress that the program meets criteria to continue.
The Office of the Secretary of Defense reviewed the program as required and determined it should continue. The Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment, Dr. William LaPlante, cited a lack of less costly alternatives and national security.
LaPlante rescinded Sentinel’s Milestone B approval – the point when an acquisition program is authorized to enter the engineering and manufacturing development phase. He also directed the Air Force to restructure the Sentinel program to address the root causes of the cost overruns.
LaPlante’s review determined that the majority of the cost growth was in Sentinel’s command and launch segment, which includes the launch silos, launch centers, and the process, duration, staffing and facilities to execute the conversion from Minuteman III to Sentinel.
“We are fully aware of the costs, but we are also aware of the risks of not modernizing our nuclear forces and not addressing the very real threats we confront,” LaPlante said. “There are reasons for the cost growth, but there are no excuses. We are already working to address the root causes, and more importantly, we believe we are on the right path to defend our nation while protecting the sacred responsibility the American taxpayer has entrusted us with.”
The scope of the Sentinel program is vast, according to a 2023 report from the Government Accountability Office.
“Sentinel is a total system replacement of the intercontinental ballistic missile system’s 400 missiles, 450 silos, and more than 600 facilities over a 31,900 square-mile landmass,” according to the report. “Sentinel’s large program scope – development of new technologies, modification of existing systems, upgrades to property, establishment of new infrastructure – combined with its size – hundreds of facilities and operations that extend across the nation – further adds to its complexity.”
