Iowa the outlier. The state doesn’t do ‘primary elections’ like most other states so voters don’t cast a ballot in the same way the rest of the country does. Yet, the state has been a predictor of what’s to come in the presidential races for years.
WalletHub recently analyzed what to expect from the Iowa Caucus in their in-depth examination of the pathway to the presidential ballot.
“Their system includes an additional, unusual component: a community discussion that takes place in each of the state’s 1,681 precincts before either party’s registered constituents finally cast their ballots. The voting itself happens in one evening, after a yearlong process of meeting the contestants, arguing about them and enduring the bright glare of the media spotlight.”
Over the years, this unique operation has attracted praise for exemplifying “grassroots democracy” as well as condemnation for perpetuating what many consider an outdated, unrepresentative procedure.
Source: WalletHub
Key Findings
- The Overall Resemblance Index for Iowa is 89.
- Sociodemographics: 84
- Economics: 89
- Education: 92
- Religion: 87
- Public Opinion: 91
- 63.6% of Iowa-caucus winners have won the Democratic Party nomination and 44.4% the Republican Party nomination. The Iowa caucuses, therefore, are a much better predictor of advancement for Democrats than for Republicans.
- Iowa least resembles the U.S. in terms of race, with a 50.00 percent difference; religious composition, with a 74.52 percent difference; wealth gap, with a 76.41 percent difference; and employment by industry, with an 80.30 percent difference.
- Iowa most resembles the U.S. in terms of mean work hours, with a 99.48 percent similarity; unemployment rate, with a 99.10 percent similarity; school enrollment, with a 99.02 percent similarity; and importance of religion in one’s life, with a 99.00 percent similarity.
WalletHub’s data set of 22 key measures includes sociodemographic, economic, educational and religious metrics as well as public stances on certain issues.
| Metric Name | Resemblance Index |
|---|---|
| Sociodemographic | 84.27% |
| Gender | 98.93% |
| Age | 94.30% |
| Race | 50.00% |
| Family Relationship | 90.10% |
| Health Insurance Coverage | 92.20% |
| Place of Birth | 83.80% |
| Economics | 89.35% |
| Poverty Rate | 96.40% |
| Wealth Gap | 76.41% |
| Food Stamp Entitlement of Households | 95.70% |
| Number of Part-Time Employees for Every 100 Full-Time Employees | 94.88% |
| Unemployment Rate | 99.10% |
| Length of Average Workweek | 99.48% |
| Education | 91.61% |
| Educational Attainment | 84.20% |
| School Enrollment | 99.02% |
| Religion | 86.76% |
| Religious Composition of Adults | 74.52% |
| Importance of Religion in One’s Life among Adults | 99.00% |
| Public Opinions | 91.42% |
| Party Affiliation among adults | 92.00% |
| Political Ideology among Adults | 91.00% |
| Views about Abortion among Adults | 92.00% |
| Should there be more restrictions on the current process of purchasing a gun? | 90.70% |
| OVERALL | 88.68% |
Source: WalletHub
Detailed Findings
| Metric Name | Iowa Value | U.S. Value | Resemblance Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sociodemographic | 84.27% | ||
| Gender | 98.93% | ||
| % of Male | 50.13% | 49.59% | |
| % of Female | 49.87% | 50.41% | |
| Age | 94.30% | ||
| % of Population Younger than Age 19 | 26.00% | 24.80% | |
| % of Population Between Ages 20 & 24 | 7.30% | 6.70% | |
| % of Population Between Ages 25 & 34 | 12.40% | 13.70% | |
| % of Population Between Ages 35 & 44 | 12.40% | 12.90% | |
| % of Population Between Ages 45 & 54 | 11.50% | 12.40% | |
| % of Population Between Ages 55 & 64 | 13.00% | 12.90% | |
| % of Population Aged 65 & Older | 17.60% | 16.50% | |
| Race | 50.00% | ||
| % of White Population | 83.80% | 58.90% | |
| % of Black or African American Population | 3.70% | 12.10% | |
| % of American Indian or Alaskan Population | 0.20% | 0.60% | |
| % of Asian Population | 2.50% | 5.70% | |
| % of Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Population | 0.10% | 0.20% | |
| % of Other Population | 3.10% | 3.90% | |
| % of Hispanic Population | 6.50% | 18.70% | |
| Family Relationship | 90.10% | ||
| % of Population Who Are Householders | 41.70% | 38.90% | |
| % of Population Who Are Spouses (in Households) | 20.40% | 18.50% | |
| % of Population Who Are Children (in Households) | 27.90% | 29.40% | |
| % of Population Represented by Other Relatives (in Households) | 3.60% | 7.10% | |
| % of Population Represented by Nonrelatives (in Households) | 3.20% | 3.40% | |
| Health Insurance Coverage | 92.20% | ||
| % of Population with Health Insurance Coverage | 95.20% | 91.30% | |
| % of Population without Health Insurance Coverage | 4.80% | 8.70% | |
| Place of Birth | 83.80% | ||
| % of Foreign-Born Population | 5.60% | 13.70% | |
| % of Native Population | 94.40% | 86.30% | |
| Economics | 89.35% | ||
| % of Population with the Following Household Income Levels | 88.00% | ||
| Less than $25,000 | 15.20% | 15.70% | |
| $25,000 – 34,999 | 7.80% | 7.40% | |
| $35,000 – 49,999 | 11.90% | 10.70% | |
| $50,000 – $74,999 | 17.90% | 16.10% | |
| $75,000 – $99,999 | 14.30% | 12.80% | |
| $100,000 – $149,999 | 18.20% | 17.10% | |
| $150,000 or More | 14.70% | 20.20% | |
| Poverty Rate | 96.40% | ||
| % of Families in Poverty | 7.00% | 8.80% | |
| % of Families Above Poverty Line | 93.00% | 91.20% | |
| Wealth Gap | 12.85 | 16.82 | 76.41% |
| Food Stamp Entitlement of Households | 95.70% | ||
| % of Households Receiving Food Stamps | 9.37% | 11.52% | |
| % of Households not Receiving Food Stamps | 90.63% | 88.48% | |
| Number of Part-Time Employees for Every 100 Full-Time Employees | 42.59 | 44.89 | 94.88% |
| Unemployment Rate | 2.70% | 3.60% | 99.10% |
| Length of Average Workweek | 38.90 | 38.70 | 99.48% |
| Civilian Employed Population Aged 16 Years & Older by Industry | 80.30% | ||
| Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting, and Mining | 3.70% | 1.60% | |
| Construction | 6.70% | 6.90% | |
| Manufacturing | 14.90% | 10.00% | |
| Wholesale Trade | 2.70% | 2.40% | |
| Retail Trade | 11.60% | 11.00% | |
| Transportation and Warehousing, and Utilities | 5.20% | 5.80% | |
| Information | 1.40% | 1.90% | |
| Finance and Insurance, and Real Estate and Rental and Leasing | 7.70% | 6.70% | |
| Professional, Scientific, and Management, and Administrative and Waste Management Services | 7.50% | 12.10% | |
| Educational Services, and Health Care and Social Assistance | 24.20% | 23.30% | |
| Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation, and Accommodation and Food Services | 7.00% | 9.00% | |
| Other Services, except Public Administration | 4.20% | 4.70% | |
| Public Administration | 3.20% | 4.70% | |
| Education | 91.61% | ||
| Educational Attainment | 84.20% | ||
| % of People Aged 25 & Older with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher | 30.20% | 34.30% | |
| % of People Aged 25 & Older with Some College Experience or Associate’s Degree | 32.10% | 28.40% | |
| % of People Aged 25 & Older Who Are High School Graduates | 30.60% | 26.40% | |
| % of People Aged 25 & Older Who Did Not Complete High School | 7.00% | 10.80% | |
| School Enrollment | 99.02% | ||
| % of Population Aged 3 & Older Enrolled in School | 25.62% | 25.13% | |
| % of Population Aged 3 & Older not Enrolled in School | 74.38% | 74.87% | |
| Religion | 86.76% | ||
| Religious Composition of Adults | 74.52% | ||
| Evangelical Protestant | 11.05% | 16.50% | |
| Mainline Protestant | 15.72% | 5.20% | |
| Black Protestant | 0.74% | 2.20% | |
| Catholic | 14.75% | 18.70% | |
| Orthodox | 0.10% | 0.40% | |
| Other Adherents | 1.48% | 0.10% | |
| Islam | 0.73% | 1.30% | |
| Judaism | 0.10% | 0.60% | |
| Hinduism | 0.13% | 0.40% | |
| Buddhism | 0.06% | 0.30% | |
| Unclaimed Population | 55.14% | 54.30% | |
| Importance of Religion in One’s Life among Adults | 99.00% | ||
| % Very religious | 37.00% | 37.00% | |
| % Moderately religious | 30.00% | 30.00% | |
| % Nonreligious | 32.00% | 33.00% | |
| Public Opinions | 91.42% | ||
| Party Affiliation among adults | 92.00% | ||
| Republican/lean Rep. | 42.00% | 38.00% | |
| Democrat/lean Dem. | 42.00% | 45.00% | |
| No lean | 16.00% | 17.00% | |
| Political Ideology among Adults | 91.00% | ||
| Conservative | 37.00% | 33.60% | |
| Moderate | 32.00% | 34.30% | |
| Liberal | 26.00% | 28.20% | |
| Don’t know | 5.00% | 3.90% | |
| Views about Abortion among Adults | 92.00% | ||
| Legal in all/most cases | 61.00% | 65.00% | |
| Illegal in all/most cases (including Don’t know) | 39.00% | 35.00% | |
| Should there be more restrictions on the current process of purchasing a gun? | 90.70% | ||
| Yes | 61.70% | 66.35% | |
| No | 37.78% | 33.65% | |
| Other | 0.52% | 0.00% | |
| OVERALL | 88.68% |
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As frigid temperatures scour the Midwest, the Republican presidential nominating process will officially start Monday with Iowa’s caucuses.The quadrennial contest has been unusually quiet this year, a mark of former President Donald Trump’s commanding lead in the race.
The Iowa caucus appears to be a battle for second place given Trump’s dominance . The real question is whether either of the two Republicans who lead the pack of very distant also-rans can make it a two-person race in the long run.